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  1. #1

    Final Analysis of the 2011 Offer List

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    Some thoughts and some numbers to crunch on the offers to the 2011 recruiting class.

    The 2011 Recruiting Class received 128 ND offers with 23 total commits, a 18.0 % success rate, compared to 21.5% for the 2010 class, 22.2% for the 2009 class, and 33.3% for the 2008 Class. Kelly is casting a wider net than Weis did though and has not been willing to wait for the ultra elite players to decide before extending more offers, so a success rate in the 15-20% range from here on is probably the new norm for ND football recruiting.

    Kelly had a banner year on the Official Visits front as 23 out of 33 Official Visitors ended up Irish on NSD, compared to 23 out of 46 last year. Only one of the 10 Official Visitors who did not end up Irish on NSD was a one-time ND verbal (Okotcha), and in that case the OV was the first visit by the recruit, a visit which actually convinced him not to sign with ND.

    2011 was certainly the best closing job for ND recruiting in the past few years, and Kelly's staff deserves a ton of credit for their effort, but like with everyting else it helped them immensely that ND won its' last 4 games of 2010 as opposed to in 2009 where ND lost its' last 4 games.

    Hoff posted some of this already, but here is the complete breakdown by school and by conference of where the 105 ND offered recruits for the Class of 2010 who committed elsewhere ended up on NSD.

    Ohio State 9
    Georgia 8
    Florida State 7
    Alabama 6
    USC 6
    Oklahoma 5
    California 4
    Clemson 4
    Florida 4
    Michigan 4
    Tennessee 4
    Texas 4
    Auburn 3
    Miami 3
    Nebraska 3
    Stanford 3
    Arkansas 2
    Boston College 2
    Iowa 2
    LSU 2
    Oregon 2
    Rutgers 2
    Virginia 2
    Washington 2
    Arizona 1
    Baylor 1
    Cincinnati 1
    Georgia Tech 1
    Kentucky 1
    Michigan State 1
    Missouri 1
    NC State 1
    North Carolina 1
    Oklahoma State 1
    Ole Miss 1
    TCU 1

    SEC 31
    ACC 21
    PAC TEN 18
    BIG TEN 16
    BIG EAST 3
    MTN WEST 1

    Some final thoughts on the one’s we missed out on as well as a little rant about Slick Rick.

    1) The total of 105 who went elsewhere is spread among 36 schools, all 6 BCS Conferences, and the Mountain West conference. ND is still by far the #1 school in terms of the scope of their National Recruiting.

    2) Despite casting a wider net, only 1 of the 105 who went elsewhere committed to a non-BCS conference school, and even in that case it was to a soon to be BCS conference school. So despite casting a wider net Kelly was obviously still able to identify and offer only high quality recruits.

    3) After a one year absence, Ohio State returned to the top as the leader in players with Irish offers who committed elsewhere. This is a result of a change in focus by Kelly vs. Weis on more recruiting offers in the Midwest and SEC country, and less on California. Even Michigan nabbed 4 recruits with ND offers, compared to only 1 in 2010.

    4) Florida and Texas were the co-leaders in the committed elsewhere category last year with 7 each. Both of them dropped to 4 this year as a result of sub-par seasons, while FSU, who is clearly now ND's biggest competitor recruiting wise of the Florida Big 3, jumped to 7 commits with ND offers vs. 4 in 2010.

    5) More clear evidence that Kelly was more involved in the heart of SEC country is shown by the fact that between UGA and Tennessee there were 12 ND offered commits, compared to only 4 in 2010.

    6) On the flip side of that UCLA had 6 ND offered recruits commit to them in 2010, and zero in 2011. Part of that was a function of ND doing less recruiting in California, but most of it was due to an atrocious turnaround in UCLA's recruiting fortunes between the 2010 and the 2011 classes. UCLA was the star of 2010 NSD with 8 commits in the last 2 weeks of the recruiting season, including 5 elite commits on NSD alone. In 2010 they had 23 commits including 13 four stars and above which gave them Rivals #8 Team Ranking last year. This year they ended up with only 16 commits (including Neuheisel's son), only 3 Rivals four stars, and a #44 Team Ranking on Rivals. It could have been worse though as once again Slick Rick closed well with 8 of the 16 commits including 2 of the 3 Rivals 4 stars commtting on NSD. Before NSD UCLA was probably in the 100's on the Rivals Team Rankings, but still finishing only #44 nationally with all the talent that exists in SoCal makes you wonder how in the hell is this dude still keeping his job.

    7) The 2011 change in recruiting focus is also clearly illustrated on the conference level as well, as the Pac 10 who was the leader in this category last year dropped to 3rd behind both the SEC and the ACC. Last year this was pretty close between the Pac 10 and the SEC. This year the SEC wins in a blowout and the ACC went from nabbing 11 ND offered recruits in 2010 to 21 this year. The Big East continues to be far and away the conference that is the least competitor for ND with only 3 commits from ND offered recruits, which is actually an increase from the 2 of 2010.

    8) I do expect that the Kelly staff will try to focus more on Cali in 2012 than they did in 2011. I think the reduced focus on Cali in this class was more to do with less resources and less contacts than the Weis staff had on the West Coast, as opposed to a strategic decision to shift away from California. Hopefully the contacts that Denbrock established in 2011 will lead to more offers to West Coast recruits. However despite the fact that ND offered less West Coast recruits in 2011 vs. 2010, and the seeming general consensus among ND recruitniks that Polian is a far better recruiter than Denbrock, it has to be pointed out that the 2011 recruiting class had more LOI's from Cali kids (3) than the 2010 class did (2), and also that the 2 from the 2010 class were a ND legacy (Roberson) and a kid (Utupo) who loved ND so much that he committed before ever visiting the campus, as opposed to three kids (the Atkinson twins & Troy Niklas) in 2011 who hardly seemed like they were destined to ND when the recruiting season began. At least as it pertains to 2011 results vs. 2010, point goes to Denbrock over Polian.

    I guess that’s about it. Onward to 2012.

  2. #2
    Senior Member lowayne's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Thanks IUB. I wonder if we see a few less offers go out in the coming cycle. If the program continues to gain momentum and the class is indeed medium-small, a touch more selectiveness might happen.
    "Doggonnit............The Lord gave you two legs, protect them" - Coach Hart

  3. #3
    Senior Member rontdtarchala's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Greenwood IN
    thanks IUB I got out of the hospital saturday and slept through the superbowl (crap!) and finally woke up about an hour ago. I see who we got but who do you think will make a real difference to our win/loss record the quickest. I feel we will have a better year this year and would love 11 wins as I'm sure most would. also I would like to thank everyone for their prayers. They removed a large pollup from my traquea and took out my traque tube... I pray I start feeling like my old self soon and can actually enjoy this coming season. You are all some good folks and I'm glad to be able to converse with all of you.... again thanks
    Goooooooo Irish!!!

  4. #4
    Senior Member IrishGrizz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    By the Blue Turf'd Eden
    Continue the recovery ron- and the prayers will continue, too.

  5. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Ron keep up the good fight........the Irish will fight on just like you have. I pray things will continue to get better for you.

  6. #6
    Senior Member rontdtarchala's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Greenwood IN
    thanks guys... I'm praying that I heal enough to go to the b&g game with my son and grandson... truly appreciate the kind words... that's why this is the best site... We have folks that are so dang knowledgable about the Irish... and care about each other... I believe this site is driven by our Heavenly Father... his grace is on this site... GO IRISH!!!
    Goooooooo Irish!!!

  7. #7
    Senior Member NotreDameNate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Southern Illinois
    Stay strong, Ron. I hope better times are sooner than later for you, sir.
    KeiVarae Russell: "When the coaches told me over the next few days in the film room that I was gonna start I was like ‘Uh Oh’.”

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